U.S. MILITARY - Next Afghanistan?

"Our Next War in Afghanistan Is Already Looming.  And It May Be Even Harder." by Travis Tritten and Stephen Losey, Military.com 9/30/2021

The dangers that kept the U.S. in Afghanistan for so long are already accumulating again, little more than a month after the last troops left in a chaotic withdrawal.

The al-Qaida terrorist group that drew America into the country two decades ago is poised to come back under the ruling Taliban regime, or it never left at all, depending on whom you ask.

It may be only one to two years before the group could again threaten the U.S. homeland, according to a conservative estimate the Defense Intelligence Agency and the CIA disclosed in September.  Then, there was the last spasm of violence before the complete pullout of U.S. forces in Afghanistan -- a suicide bombing that killed 13 troops that was attributed to a competing terrorist group, the Islamic State-Khorasan [ISIS-K].

Under that looming terrorism threat, former defense officials, lawmakers and experts believe a new U.S. military intervention in Afghanistan is likely, maybe even inevitable, in what could be an echo of the withdrawal a decade ago from Iraq that cleared the way for the rise of the Islamic State and years of horrific attacks, killings and more war.

"We are going to have to send U.S. military forces back in some form to Afghanistan," said Bradley Bowman, senior director of the Center on Military and Political Power at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank.  "I don't have a crystal ball -- I don't know if that is six months or six years -- but the disaster in Iraq took three years to unfold."

Then-President Barack Obama declared the Iraq war over in 2011.  Over the next three years, the Islamic State group grew into a Mideast regional power with control of Mosul, Iraq's second largest city.  It sponsored attacks in the U.S. and around the world, slaughtered ethnic minorities, and released videos of the beheadings of aid workers, tourists and journalists, including American James Foley, in a display of barbarity that swiftly drew recruits to form a pseudo-state before American forces returned.

Afghanistan, where more than 800,000 U.S. troops fought over four presidencies to ensure it wasn't a terrorist plotting ground, could be the site of the next war on terrorism.  But this time, the military may face even tougher conditions, with the region's remote geography, a lack of bases on the ground, a Taliban regime in control of government, and allies who led a quick initial invasion victory 20 years ago either missing or in exile.

The Pentagon insists it can take out terrorist threats with "over the horizon capabilities," or long-distance surgical strikes.  But there is skepticism over the effectiveness of such strikes, which would be carried out by troops and aircraft stationed more than a thousand miles away.  A botched drone strike on Aug. 29 as the U.S. evacuated Kabul showed how such strikes can go wrong -- 10 civilians, including seven children, killed by mistake due to bad intelligence collected from the air.

"I would love to say we have this magic ability to reach in and kill any bad guy, and maybe we'll kill a few of them," Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.), an Air Force veteran who served in the war in Afghanistan, said in an interview.  "But man, we run the real risk of just creating more enemies than we do killing them."

New World or Old Safe Haven

The White House sought to turn the page on the war and shift focus as the dust settled in Kabul, even as concerns grew.

President Joe Biden gave an address Aug. 31, telling the country that he "ended 20 years of war" and that the terrorist threat held at bay for so many years by a U.S. military presence had moved elsewhere.  It was an effort to explain a military-led withdrawal and evacuation that saw desperate Afghans clinging to a plane departing Kabul, the deadly suicide bombing, and finally the tragic U.S. airstrike that killed only civilians.

"This is a new world.  The terror threat has metastasized across the world, well beyond Afghanistan," said Biden, pointing to Syria, the Arabian Peninsula and Africa.

Biden's top military adviser, Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley, and the head of U.S. Central Command Gen. Frank McKenzie would later testify on Sept. 28 to the Senate Armed Services Committee that they recommended maintaining troops in the country.

But the Pentagon would instead keep an eye on the region from afar, Biden said in his address.  Afghanistan was a priority, but no longer a top priority.

On the same day as Biden's address, al-Qaida released a statement praising what it called a Taliban victory over the "filth of the Americans," according to a translation posted by the Long War Journal, a publication of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

The United Nations Security Council had reported in June that large numbers of al-Qaida fighters and other extremists aligned with the Taliban remained in Afghanistan.  The group was present in 15 of Afghanistan's 34 provinces but was laying low and minimizing communication with Taliban leaders to avoid international attention, the U.N. reported.

"In many ways, we're in the exact same place we were 20 years ago, and that is with a Taliban-al-Qaida safe haven in Afghanistan," Bowman said.

Top Pentagon officials acknowledged the terror group, which plotted the 9/11 attacks, still had a presence in Afghanistan during hours of questioning from the Senate committee on Sept. 28.  The group's original leader, Osama bin Laden, was killed in a U.S. special operations raid on a Pakistan compound in 2011.

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said there were still "remnants" in the Taliban-ruled country, and Milley told the committee al-Qaida exists and wants to regroup from there to strike the U.S.

"Folks, we are going to pay for what we just did," Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) said during the hearing.  "I got young kids, y'all got kids and grandkids, and we're going to be back in there fighting."

Few Levers Left to Pull

Any U.S. military return to Afghanistan would likely require a major emergency, something akin to the Islamic State group's surge through Syria and northern Iraq in 2014, said retired Gen. Joe Votel, who served as head of U.S. Central Command and U.S. Special Operations Command, and also led Army Rangers in the Afghanistan and Iraq wars.

Public horror and outrage fueled a years-long U.S. air campaign, which was assisted by a small number of ground troops working with local Syrian and Iraqi forces.  A military presence remains in Iraq, but Biden ordered the combat mission to end this year.

"I could definitely see us responding to a threat [in Afghanistan], and I would certainly hope that we would," Votel said in an interview.

But he said any military operations are likely to focus more narrowly on specific targets there, rather than trying to solve conditions in the country that created them.  The U.S. poured $2.3 trillion into rebuilding Afghanistan over the 20-year war in hopes of creating a functioning democratic government, according to Brown University's Cost of War project, though that government and its security forces crumbled within days during the Taliban advance over the summer.

Over-the-horizon capabilities, the airstrikes carried out from distant bases, are now the first line of defense, mainly because military options are otherwise limited following the withdrawal.

"We have very few levers in Afghanistan right now because we've completely pulled out," McKenzie said in his Senate testimony.

The U.S. military lost its ground base in Kabul, the partnership with elite Afghan commandos who were the most effective of the U.S.-trained troops, and much of its intelligence feed, making what was set to be a difficult mission over a remote, landlocked country even harder, said William Wechsler, senior director of the Rafik Hariri Center and Middle East Programs at the Atlantic Council.

"Whether we like it or not, we are now in a race, and the race is between the Salafi jihadists' predictable efforts to build external attack capacities and our efforts to establish an acceptably effective over-the-horizon counter-terrorism capability," said Wechsler, who served as deputy assistant secretary of defense for special operations and combating terrorism during the Obama administration.

Lack of Intel and Hard Geography

Austin told the Senate that the military's use of over-the-horizon strikes is fairly common and effective.  He pointed to a September airstrike in Syria that the Pentagon said killed an al-Qaida terrorist leader.

"Over-the-horizon operations are difficult but absolutely possible, and the intelligence that supports them comes from a variety of sources and not just U.S. boots on the ground," Austin told the Senate committee on Sept. 28.

But Retired Gen. John Allen, now the president of the Brookings Institution, said that type of intelligence is crucial for such operations.  Allen was the NATO International Security Assistance Force commander in Afghanistan, and also served as special presidential envoy to the Global Coalition to Counter ISIL, the U.S.-led group of nations that fought the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria.

"Over-the-horizon targeting implies that you have eyes on the target, you've got some form of boots on the ground or intelligence development capability that's on the ground," Allen said in a Middle East Institute discussion Sept. 16.  "We have none, we've basically given it up."

The last U.S. airstrike [video] of the Afghanistan war, which mistakenly killed 10 civilians in a home near the Kabul airport, illustrated how horribly wrong operations overseen from abroad can go.

After receiving conflicting intelligence about the home being used by ISIS-K for a planned attack drawn from video captured by six Reaper drones watching from above, a strike team located abroad launched a Hellfire missile that killed an aid worker as well as seven children.

"I would reject a parallel between this operation and an over-the-horizon strike against an ISIS-K target, again, because we will have an opportunity to further develop the target and time to look at pattern of life," meaning long-term monitoring of targets, McKenzie said in a Sept. 17 briefing admitting the botched strike.  "That time was not available to us because this was an imminent threat to our forces."

During the war against the Islamic State group in Iraq and Syria, the presence of special operators on the ground was key to targeting the enemy.

But the withdrawal and the loss of the Kabul airport and Bagram airport, one of the most capable and advanced in the region, has hobbled the ability to insert troops if needed and has put any U.S. aerial operations up against the difficult geography of the country.

"The distances here are considerable, and it's hard to cover the distances and sustain these efforts when you have a dynamic threat on the ground," Votel said.

Iran airspace is a no-go for the military, and Allen said Russian President Vladimir Putin will likely try to block any attempts by the U.S. to set up operating bases in the former Soviet republics of Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan that box in Afghanistan in the north.

U.S. military strikes could then be dependent on Pakistan giving clearance to fly through its territory.  But Islamabad may feel pressure to ally with the Taliban government in Afghanistan, leaving access an open and troubling question as its relationship with the U.S. evolves post-withdrawal, according to Allen.

Pentagon spokesman John Kirby declined to say whether arrangements have been made with Pakistan for the U.S. to use its airspace for over-the-horizon strikes.

As intelligence and access have grown harder, the U.S. also faces a third challenge: the loss of local partners.  Indigenous forces were key in both the early days of the Afghanistan war and the operations against the Islamic State in the Middle East.

Afghanistan's Northern Alliance opposition in the Panjshir Valley proved capable in 2001 and gave the U.S. military a toehold.  A fledgling anti-Taliban resistance in Panjshir has now been snuffed out as would-be opposition leaders fled into neighboring countries.

The strategic difficulties with continuing military operations in Afghanistan, and the grim terrorism assessments, came as Congress and the Pentagon wrestled with the legacy of the 20-year war.

"I don't think it's pre-ordained that we're going to have to go back," Austin told senators.

The question is what would prompt the military to go back in, and whether it would take another attack on the U.S. homeland, Kinzinger said.  Or would it require a steady drumbeat of attacks and atrocities like those committed by the Islamic State in the vacuum left in northern Iraq and war-torn Syria during the last decade?

"I think it's one thing to reintroduce troops into Iraq like we did, but Afghanistan is a whole different thing," Kinzinger said.  "That's a frightening idea."

OPINION - Brooks and Capehart 9/10/2021

"Brooks and Capehart on the anniversary of 9/11, the politics of vaccinations" PBS NewsHour 9/10/2021

Excerpt

SUMMARY:  New York Times columnist David Brooks and Washington Post columnist Jonathan Capehart join John Yang to discuss the week in politics, including the anniversary of 9/11, the politics of vaccinations and California's recall election.

John Yang (NewsHour):  On the eve of the 20th anniversary of the deadliest terror attack in the country, we are in the midst of another calamity, COVID-19.

Here to break down the political aspects of all this, the analysis of Brooks and Capehart.  That's New York Times columnist David Brooks, and Jonathan Capehart, columnist for The Washington Post.

Gentlemen, we just heard Judy lead a discussion about the foreign policy aspects of all of this.  And, certainly I can — looking back on 9/11, I remember how we felt changed from this.  But, looking back, looking backward at it, how did we change?  Are we changed as a people, as a nation, as a political system?

David, what's your take?

David Brooks, New York Times:  Well, as a globe.

I mean, it was the first act of the 21st century.  And so I was a foreign correspondent in the 1990s.  I covered nothing but good news.  I covered the end of the Soviet Union, the fall of the Berlin Wall, Mandela coming an end of apartheid, the Oslo Peace Process.

And the theme of the '90s was convergence.  China was liberalizing.  We were becoming more like each other and more communication with each other.  We thought the Internet was a good thing back then.

And 9/11 happens, and a group of terrorists said, no, we don't want to be like you.  We reject you.

And so that was a shock.  And then you have other shocks.  The Chinese stops liberalizing.  We don't want to be like you.  Russia goes to Putin.  We don't want to be like that.

So the 21st century has been the re-erection of barriers.  And 9/11 was a first shocking foretaste of a much tougher world.

John Yang:  Jonathan, as I recall, you were in New York.  You were working for Michael Bloomberg.

Jonathan Capehart, Washington Post:  Right.  Right.  I was working on his first of three mayoral campaigns in New York City, and it was primary day.

And I remember waking up.  I lived in a high-rise, so I had a perfect view of the city.  It was a crystal-clear day.  I remember walking to the voting place, looking up at the sky and thinking, this is a spectacular day.  And still to this day, that is — I'd never seen a day like that in New York City.

And all hell broke loose later, about 90 minutes later, later that morning.  Lots of things changed that day.  We were in the middle of a mayoral campaign.  The campaign stopped.

At one point while we're watching the coverage on television, someone just asks out loud, has anyone heard from the mayor, meaning Rudy Giuliani at the time, who, on primary day, everyone in New York was looking forward to turning the page from Rudy Giuliani's mayoralty.

And the rest, we know, is history.

I think that, in these 20 years, just to add on to what David was just talking about, we have seen a lot of what I think of as one step — one giant step forward, and then two giant steps back.  One giant step forward was the election of Barack Obama as President of the United States, first Black President.

But a huge step back was the election of Donald Trump as President.  Another huge, huge step forward, the election of Joe Biden as President of the United States.  Another huge step forward, marriage equality.  But another huge step back, to my mind, one was the fact that, even though Donald Trump lost the election, he got 15 — 12 million more votes than he did in 2016.  So it just highlights the divisions within the country.

And then the ultimate step back, January 6.  My colleague Carlos Lozada said this morning on television that how ironic it is that, on September 11, there were reports that the plane that went down in Shanksville was headed to the Capitol, headed to crash into the Capitol.  And yet, at almost 20 years later, the Capitol was ransacked by domestic terrorists who lay siege to the U.S. Capitol at a time when the members of — Congress was certifying the last election.

That was, to my mind, the ultimate step back.  And to your point about the world turning away from democracy, we have that issue here at home right now.

John Yang:  So, Jonathan, you see it — what I hear you saying is that other forces have changed politics more since 9/11 than 9/11.

Jonathan Capehart:  Oh, I think so.

I think MAGA and the domestic terror threat is much more worrisome than any foreign threat we could face.

John Yang:  David.

David Brooks:  Yes, I would agree.

I think we had — we thought we had some debates settled.  And the settlement was liberal pluralism, democratic capitalism, and the world is sort of evolving away from some sort of primitivism.  And then, suddenly, 9/11 happens, and Afghanistan and al-Qaida, and then ISIS.

So, apparently, we're not evolving away from that.  And then — and then capitalism, well, 2008, that sort of disillusions that.  And then, oh, we're a more diverse nation, Barack Obama.  2016 disillusions that.

COVID, we can't function as a people.  We have lost faith in each other.  And so it's been a sad epoch of disillusionment, not without good things, as Jonathan said, but the — just look at the dumb figure, do you trust your neighbors?  Do you trust the people around you?

Anyway generation ago, 50, 60 percent.  Now it's 30 percent, 19 percent of millennials.  And this is the world they have known.  And their distrust is an earned distrust.  And so this is the legacy of what we have faced in the past two decades.

John Yang:  And we are in the midst of another calamity, the pandemic.

And as we have been focusing on 9/11 this week, it struck me.  Someone pointed out to me that, every two days this week, with COVID deaths, we have essentially had another 9/11 and also had another 20-year Afghan war in terms of the Americans who've died.

This week — or, yesterday, the President tried, after resisting mandates, has ordered mandates.

David, what do you make of that shift?  And do you think this is going to work?

David Brooks:  First, I'm reminded, in — September 22, 2001, George Bush had a 90 percent approval rating.  We were a unified country.

We're not that anymore.  I — with the Biden mandates, I think the government has an absolute right to do this.  Public health and the air we breathe is a common good.  I nonetheless think it's a mistake.

If you go around, as I did, and we all do as reporters, you go to a town, McCook, Nebraska; Wilkes, North Carolina; and Chicago, you say, who's trusted here, in every neighborhood, people will give you names.  And they're always the same names.  Everybody knows who the nodes of community is in their community.

And I thought it was public health 101 that you go at the grassroots level to who's trusted in each neighborhood, and you try to get them to influence people to uptake vaccines and do anything else.

Having a top-down, highly partisan process from the part of government that is disliked the most, the politics that is distrusted the most seems to be the wrong way to go.  And it seems to me it's going to create a backlash, where a lot of people that don't like Joe Biden are going to say, hell no, I'm definitely not taking the vaccines now.

And so I think it's — the way we have done it is counterproductive.

John Yang:  Jonathan?

Jonathan Capehart:  I just — I hear you, David, but I just don't think, in this day and age, the grassroots aren't working.  From the bottom up, it's not working.

The President has resisted doing what he did yesterday for the longest time, facing enormous criticism from lots of people, asking, why isn't Washington [DC], why isn't the President doing something, exercising all the power that he has to do something, hoping that neighbors would trust neighbors, people would listen to health professionals?

And it's not happening.  And the anger in the country at the unvaccinated is palpable.  I am one of those people.  Howard Stern is out there cursing at people to get vaccinated because he — quote — "He wants his freedom back."

Millions of Americans, a majority of Americans want their freedom back.  And I think that the President was channeling that anger, and for — on behalf of the majority of the American people who just want their neighbors and friends and co-workers who are resisting getting the vaccine, or even putting on a mask, just do these two simple things, and we would be clear of this faster than then we could imagine.

But folks aren't doing it.  And so if they're not going to do it voluntarily, then the President decided, I'm going to click some levers to make it happen a little more quickly.

I don't think it's going to backfire on him.

John Yang:  But, as David pointed out, I mean, this is generating a huge amount of anger from people who don't like Joe Biden to begin with.

And the Republican governors going to — say they're going to go to court about this.  I mean, are — is this going to be — is it going to backfire?

Jonathan Capehart:  John, it was bound to happen.

Republican governors were bound to be against anything that the President proposed.  And, quite frankly, Republican governors, especially the governor of Texas, don't want to hear anything from him, given that Texas abortion law he signed — bill he signed into law.

David Brooks:  Yes, I would say a government doesn't even know how to do grassroots.  We don't have — in Washington [DC], people think top down.  They think, oh, let's get some celebrities.  That will persuade them.  It's just lame.

But if you — if — in every church, if every pastor, or in softball leagues, if people, if neighbors got together among the avenues of trust that already exist, and say, sorry, you can't play in the softball league unless you get the shots, to me, that's neighbor talking to neighbor.

It's less political.  It's less partisan.  And it doesn't happen on its own.  You — I mean, we're in a sophisticated economy where people know how to create swarms of activity across networks.  And yet government is incapable of thinking that way.

And so we are where we are.

John Yang:  But are the Republicans going to use this as a cudgel against the President, against the Democrats in the midterms and in '24?

David Brooks:  Oh, absolutely.

I mean, they had trouble trying to figure out how to attack Joe Biden.  But now, as a friend of mine e-mailed me today, now they have their line, unconstitutional, incompetent, running your life.  That's a Republican — that's a line Republicans know how to use.

And so I think they will use that.  And I don't want to associate myself with them.  I think they're being crazy.  But we should all be vaccinated.  But that's a pretty politically effective line, I think.

John Yang:  Well, there's another Democratic leader who got into trouble a little bit because of COVID and the reaction to his — what he was doing, Governor Gavin Newsom of California.

There's a recall election coming up.  There are 46 — count them — 46 candidates running to replace him if he is recalled.

What are your thoughts on that, Jonathan?

Jonathan Capehart:  This is insane that the governor of California, who has a high approval rating — his approval rating is a high 50s, low 60s.

And he is facing a recall simply because people don't want to wait until the next election to exact whatever revenge or to hold him accountable.  And so they're going to attempt to get rid of a popular governor.

And then, due to maybe apathy and low turnout, he could get recalled.  And then, yes, there are 46 candidates, but the one leading person, Larry Elder, is somebody who is — I mean, he's from the Trump — the Trump school and Trump wing of the Republican Party.

He is also African American.  And I — I'm almost speechless, because I cannot believe California is in this mess.  And yet, if Democrats don't come out and vote and don't return those ballots — I think the election is next week, if not next week, the week after — Governor Newsom could be history.

But I don't think that's going to happen.  But the fact that we're talking about this just demonstrates how crazy our politics are now.

John Yang:  David?

David Brooks:  The patterns is, in the referendum, the no's tend to rise at the end.  So, if there's going to be momentum, it will probably be on the Newsom side.

But I love democracy, but not direct democracy.

(LAUGHTER)

David Brooks:  And California over does it with the referendum and they overdo it with this.

We elect people for terms for a reason.  And that reason is, sometimes, they have to do unpleasant things that are going to make them unpopular.  And we — if you can be recalled at a moment's notice, it — then they're not going to do those things.

It's not like the ratings on TV, where you cancel the show if it has a bad season.  We have — we go through ups and downs with our politicians, and they should be unpopular.

John Yang:  David Brooks, Jonathan Capehart, thank you very much.

Jonathan Capehart:  Thanks, John.

AFGHANISTAN - Taliban Rule Week 9/6/2021

"Taliban takeover threatens Afghan agriculture as farmers fear being forced to grow poppy" PBS NewsHour 9/6/2021

Excerpt

SUMMARY:  As Afghans figure out how to get on with their lives, fears abound that the new Taliban government will crack down on local business and commerce.  The Taliban takeover could cripple Afghan farmers in the middle of their harvest, in a country where agriculture is the lifeblood of rural communities and is Afghanistan’s largest export business.  Special correspondent Mike Cerre reports.

 

 

"Taliban gain control of Panjshir Valley but are yet to form an official government" PBS NewsHour 9/6/2021

Excerpt

SUMMARY:  A senior State Department official confirmed the United States evacuated four Americans from Afghanistan and relocated them to a nearby country in the first known U.S. overland extraction since the August 31 withdrawal deadline.  As Ali Rogin reports, that comes as Taliban fighters claim to have seized the country's last pocket of resistance.

 

 

"What we know about the Taliban men who will form Afghanistan’s interim government" PBS NewsHour 9/7/2021

Excerpt

SUMMARY:  The Taliban takeover of Afghanistan continues as the group announced leaders of a "caretaker" government Tuesday.  Meanwhile, the U.S. Secretaries of State and defense were in the Gulf region, in Qatar, where the American evacuation mission is headquartered, and the White House requested $6.4 billion for both the evacuation and resettlement of Afghan refugees.  Yamiche Alcindor reports.

 

 

"Two experts on Afghanistan’s ‘caretaker’ government and its ties to other terrorist groups" PBS NewsHour 9/7/2021

Excerpt

SUMMARY:  To learn more about the men leading the new Taliban government in Afghanistan, Judy Woodruff speaks to Ahmed Rashid a journalist and author of "Taliban: Militant Islam, Oil and Fundamentalism in Central Asia," and Douglas London who had a 34-year CIA career and authored the new book “The Recruiter: Spying and the Lost Art of American Intelligence.”

 

 

"Many Afghans haven’t eaten in weeks as Taliban rule triggers humanitarian crisis" PBS NewsHour 9/9/2021

Excerpt

SUMMARY:  An international commercial flight took off from the Kabul airport Thursday for the first since the Taliban seized the country.  On the evacuation flight were 200 foreigners, among them Americans.  But they leave behind a country in a humanitarian crisis.  Ali Rogin has the story.

OPINION - Gerson and Capehart 8/20/2021

"Gerson and Capehart on Afghanistan, school mask mandates" PBS NewsHour 8/20/2021

SUMMARY:  Washington Post columnists Jonathan Capehart and Michael Gerson join Judy Woodruff to discuss the week in politics, including the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan and the politicization of mask mandates in Florida’s schools, and around the country.

Judy Woodruff (PBS NewsHour):  Americans watched this week as troubling scenes unfolded in Afghanistan and the Delta variant continued its deadly sweep across the country.

Here to talk about the implications of this are Jonathan Capehart and Michael Gerson.  That is Jonathan Capehart and Michael Gerson, both columnists — I had to repeat myself — both columnists for The Washington Post.

(LAUGHTER)

Judy Woodruff:  It's very good to have both of you.  David Brooks, we should say, is away.

Welcome to you, Michael.

Michael Gerson, Washington Post:  Thanks.

Judy Woodruff:  But, Jonathan, let me start with you.

Afghanistan all over the news this week.  We just keep watching these heartbreaking, disturbing pictures of people outside the Kabul Airport.  We have now heard from the President several times this week.  What do you make at this point of how the President and his team are handling this?

Jonathan Capehart, Washington Post:  It seems as though the President and his team are trying to do a better job of explaining and also a better job of explaining and handling the situation in Kabul than they did in the opening hours of this.

It is horrifying to see people so desperate that they would hang on to a roaring Air Force jet down the runway.  The video I woke up to this morning of I guess it was a Marine pulling a baby out of the crowd and over the barbed wire, heart-wrenching.

But I think what we saw on Monday with the President's speech, what we saw today in the East Room with the President's remarks and taking questions from the press is a President who is resolute in the decision that he made, the horrifying images and the news that we keep getting notwithstanding.

And when I look at the President and listen to him, two things come to mind.  One is, he is where the American — unfortunately, he is where the American public is and has been for years, which is, they have long wanted the United States out of Iraq, despite polling…

Judy Woodruff:  Out of Afghanistan.

Jonathan Capehart:  I'm sorry.  I'm sorry.  Out of — yes, thank you, Judy.  ....Out of Afghanistan.

So that's one.

Two, when he speaks as — about this issue, most people look at him as a commander — the commander in chief.  But when I look at him, I see a commander in chief who is the father of late service member.  So this is not foreign to him.  He has a child who went to war.  And, as commander in chief, he has to send men and women, sons and daughters, into war.

And the last point I will make on this, that's important, because only 1 percent of the U.S. population is involved in some way in the military.  This is something that former Secretary of Defense Bob [Robert] Gates used to hammer away at…

Judy Woodruff:  Right.

Jonathan Capehart:  … that we — more people need to be involved in defending this country.

And so I put all of that out there as a way of trying to at least, in some way, put the President's — I call it resoluteness — I think a lot of other people might call it stubbornness — on this issue into some context.

Judy Woodruff:  How do you piece together what you see this week?

Michael Gerson:  Well, I was kind of collecting the historical analogies that people were using this week.

And you had the Bay of Pigs by Leon Panetta, the former head of — White House Chief of Staff.  I heard the fall of Saigon, obviously, Dunkirk, which would be a little better outcome.  Also, from the British, the Suez crisis, in which Eisenhower really abandoned his allies.

There's a deep feeling of abandonment.  So, it's not a — when you have those examples, it's not a great week.  And some of the attributes, the best things about who this President is, his empathy, his competence, his way with our allies, seemed inoperative at the first part of this week.

In fact, I think that there's some damage done here to the President's reputation, basically because he was elected as a steady hand.  The purpose was to be a contrast to the constant drama of the Trump years.  These were people that are supposed to be a highly professional team, highly effective group of people.

And when you squander something that's central to your public identity, I think that it hurts.

Judy Woodruff:  And no question what you're saying about the President.

At the same time, Jonathan, as we heard from Sarah Chayes in her interview a few minutes ago with William Brangham, there's a lot more to this story.  There's a lot of history here.  We're going to be dissecting this for a long time.

And yet we still have to explain to ourselves, how did it happen?  How did it happen?

Jonathan Capehart:  Right.  How did it happen?

Craig Whitlock, our colleague at The Washington Post, in 2009 wrote a story that's now a book called "The Afghanistan Papers," where he happened upon transcripts of a series of interviews that were done with service members with the — I think it was the Office of Inspector General, where they never — they weren't talking to a reporter.

They were talking to colleagues, where they were perfectly blunt about the mismanagement, how horrible things were going, how the generals were saying one thing to the American public, a rosy picture, painting a rosy picture, and yet what was happening on the ground was the complete — was the complete opposite.

What we're finding out today, The Wall Street Journal had a story about this cable that came from State Department employees in Kabul saying directly, in the dissent channel, hey, this is not going well.  The situation is deteriorating.

And the State Department spokesperson said, yes, the secretary of state saw it.  He took it under advisement.  He may have made comments on it.

So the idea that they did not see this coming, I think to Michael's point….

Judy Woodruff:  Yes.

Jonathan Capehart:  …..  really dings the President on the competence issue, on the experience issue.

How could someone running for President on the record that Biden — that the President has, botch something like this so royally?

Judy Woodruff:  And picking up on that, Michael, I mean, Congress is going to be asking those questions, we think, as early as next week.

Michael Gerson:  No, that's absolutely true.  I think there are going to be a lot of questions about the how we got here, because this was a fiasco of planning.  And there were unforeseen elements here.

I would say one thing, though, having been in the White House in some moments like this, that I would like to maybe push back a little bit.  It's hard.  When you're in one of these moments — I saw in the interview with Stephanopoulos this week, where that…

Judy Woodruff:  With the President.

Michael Gerson:  Right — mentioned the example of the plane that you were talking about, the image.

And the President's response was, that was four or five days ago.  It was two days ago.  But it feels like four or five when you're in that kind of environment.

You have limited information, have to make real-time decisions.  So I respect people that do this job as well.  It's not — it's not hard — it's not easy.

Judy Woodruff:  There's going to be a lot of dissecting and questions asked and demanding of answers.

I also want to turn to the story that we just saw John Yang reporting on, Jonathan.  And that's this raging debate around the country about mask mandates.  You have got the Delta variant out there.  You have got parents worried, educators worried about teachers and students.  You have got a number of governors, Republican governors, who are starting to impose mandates.

But then you have got governors in Florida and Texas, Arizona, Republicans, saying no.  And they're getting into fights with school boards.

Explain the arguments here.  I mean, who's got the right argument at this point?

(LAUGHTER)

Jonathan Capehart:  I think that's a leading question.

(LAUGHTER)

Jonathan Capehart:  Look, the Republican governors, Governor Abbott [Texas] and Governor DeSantis in Florida, should be ashamed of themselves, what they are doing.

They are playing with people's lives.  They are playing politics with people's lives.  When you have teachers saying, please let us make the decision, don't stop us from making — requiring children to wear masks, it's not a matter of just the children's health.  It's the teachers' health as well.  It's the health of the school community.

And the idea that these governors are actually getting in the way, and the President not naming them, but saying, if you're not going to do the right thing, then at least get out of the way.  And, instead, they are hurling themselves in the middle of this, playing politics.  Maybe there's 2024 ambitions out there, but while they're playing politics with the lives of the people in their states and with children's lives, and it's outrageous.

Judy Woodruff:  And you do have parents, as we heard in John Yang's report, Michael, who are resisting.

Michael Gerson:  No, I think that's true.

I mean, Republicans have a very difficult circumstance here.  Basic public health measures, things like masking and this — vaccine requirements, these are not absurd or great violations of individual liberty — they're just the normal way that you oppose disease — have become deeply controversial in a significant portion of the Republican coalition.

It's as though you have — an important part of your coalition is just saying, well, we think that trash collection is a socialist plot, and, therefore, we oppose it.

It's a an extraordinary circumstance.  These people are responding to very weak real social pressures, the Republican governors, or political pressures.  They're making absolutely terrible decisions.  But I think the Republican coalition has some serious issues here, when that's what your demand is, that it's treated like a culture war issue, when in fact it's a public health issue.

Judy Woodruff:  And you do have Republican governors, Jonathan, like, what, Asa Hutchinson…

Jonathan Capehart:  Right.

Judy Woodruff:  … in Arkansas, who has changed his mind.  I mean, he's openly said I should have done this sooner.

Jonathan Capehart:  Right.

And he's the only one really we can name, when it should be more than just Governor Hutchinson.  It should be — President, former President Trump should come out there and say, get the vaccine, wear a mask.  If you love me, I need you to hang around for whatever I might do, but at least to be a part of the solution, and not continue to be the problem, because one of the reasons why masks have become such an issue, vaccine — getting the vaccine has become such an issue, is because Donald Trump made it a political issue.

Judy Woodruff:  And then you have members of Congress, Michael, who have made a big deal out of the fact they have been required in the House of Representatives to wear masks.

And a number of them are saying:  I won't do it.

You now have senators, prominent — three prominent — well, they're all prominent.

(LAUGHTER)

Judy Woodruff:  All three — but three United States senators have — who have been vaccinated have come down with breakthrough infections.

Michael Gerson:  I think some of it is a fundamental misunderstanding of what public health is.

I mean, this is the kind of issue where we all succeed or fail together.  You know, the goal here is the aggregate good.  And talking about rights-based language in this context is really a misunderstanding of what the issue is.

Judy Woodruff:  Well, it's hard to believe some of what we're seeing out there.

Michael Gerson, Jonathan Capehart, thank you both.

Jonathan Capehart:  Thanks, Judy.

Michael Gerson:  Sure.  Thank you.

AFGHAN WAR - The Bad Ending

BACKGROUND:  The War in Afghanistan was a conflict that lasted from 2001 to 2021 following the United States invasion of Afghanistan, when the United States and its allies drove the Taliban from power in order to deny al-Qaeda a safe base of operations in Afghanistan after the '9/11' Attack.  It was the longest war in United States history, surpassing the Vietnam War by roughly five months.  After the initial objectives were completed, a coalition of over 40 countries (including all NATO members) formed a security mission in the country called International Security Assistance Force (ISAF, succeeded by the Resolute Support Mission (RS) in 2014) of which certain members were involved in military combat allied with Afghanistan's government.  The war mostly consisted of Taliban insurgencies fighting against the Afghan Armed Forces and allied forces; the majority of ISAF/RS soldiers and personnel were American.

Following the September 11 attacks in 2001, George W. Bush demanded that the Taliban, then-de facto ruling Afghanistan, hand over Osama bin Laden.

COMMENTS:  The problem with this war started in 2003 when George W. Bush, Donald Rumsfeld, and other military officials took their eyes off the ball, Afghanistan, and focused on their paranoid obsession with Iraq and Saddam Hussein and shifted American military effort Iraq.

G.W.'s father, George H. W. Bush, conducted the Gulf War (Kuwait) against Iraq, with Arabs as part of the coalition, because he listened to the Arab nations that Saddam Hussein's war with Iran kept Iran occupied and prevented them from taking actions against Arab neighbors, including Afghanistan.

G.W. Bush should have totally focused on Afghanistan and left Iraq alone, all our military effort in Afghanistan would have been concentrated where it should have been.  My 'crystal ball' is no better than anyone else's, but I would guess America would not have been fighting a 20-year war in Afghanistan if this mistake hadn't been made.

 

 

"Inside the desperate, dangerous scramble to evacuate Kabul as Taliban seizes control" PBS NewsHour 8/16/2021

Excerpt

SUMMARY:  Afghanistan has fallen to the Taliban and the frenzy for Afghans and diplomats trying to flee the country reached a fever pitch Monday.  Additional U.S. troops are on their way to help with evacuations as the Taliban retake power 20 years after the American invasion.  Special correspondent Jane Ferguson reports from Kabul, and congressional correspondent Lisa Desjardins reports on the U.S. response.

 

 

"Taliban takeover of Afghanistan is an ‘American catastrophe,’ H.R. McMaster says" PBS NewsHour 8/16/2021

Excerpt

SUMMARY:  To examine the Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan and how it impacts U.S. interests, Judy Woodruff speaks to retired Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster.  He was National Security Advisor during the Trump administration and also served as a military officer in Afghanistan from 2010 to 2012, heading up a task force focused on combating corruption.  He is a senior fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution.

 

 

"Does the fallout in Afghanistan hurt American credibility?" PBS NewsHour 8/16/2021

Excerpt

SUMMARY:  To examine the Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan and how it impacts U.S. interests and credibility, Judy Woodruff speaks to Laurel Miller, former deputy and then acting U.S. Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan from 2013 to 2017.  She's now director of the Asia program at the International Crisis Group.

 

 

"Taliban leaders promise softer rule, but their actions send a different message" PBS NewsHour 8/17/2021

Excerpt

SUMMARY:  As the Taliban cemented their hold on Afghanistan Tuesday and spoke in detail about plans for the country, evacuations resumed.  The top American general in the Middle East visited the Kabul airport to observe U.S. operations, now with nearly 4000 troops on the ground.  But there is still fear about what the future may bring.  With support from the Pulitzer Center, Jane Ferguson reports from Kabul.

 

 

"Can the Taliban be trusted to keep their promise of reasonable rule?  Two experts weigh in" PBS NewsHour 8/17/2021

Excerpt

SUMMARY:  To make sense of the Taliban's plans for Afghanistan, Lisa Desjardins speaks to Ali Jalali, a former Minister of the Interior who served in the Afghan National Army.  He's now a professor at the National Defense University in Washington, D.C.  And Torek Farhadi, an analyst and former advisor to the governor of Da Afghanistan Bank, ex-senior economic advisor to former Afghan President Hamid Karzai.

 

 

"Despite Taliban promises, Afghan women fear losing their freedoms and lives" PBS NewsHour 8/17/2021

Excerpt

SUMMARY:  The plight of women and girls in Afghanistan, many of whom gained new freedoms over the past 20 years, is now among the most important priorities now that the Taliban have taken over.  With the help of author Gayle Tzemach Lemmon, Stephanie Sy tells us the story of a woman who persevered under the Taliban, flourished over the last 20 years, and escaped the Taliban's return just 48 hours ago.

 

 

"Chaos, cries for help outside Kabul airport as Taliban crack down on protesters" PBS NewsHour 8/18/2021

Excerpt

SUMMARY:  Protests against the Taliban turned deadly as the insurgents-turned-rulers of Afghanistan shot into crowds in two cities.  In Kabul, the airlift of American, allied and Afghan civilians continues as more American troops land at the airport and desperate crowds remain outside.  Jane Ferguson reports from Kabul — with the support of the Pulitzer Center — about the fear and hopelessness in Afghanistan.

 

 

"Taliban interrogating women activists, creating a ‘climate of fear and intimidation’" PBS NewsHour 8/18/2021

Excerpt

SUMMARY:  William Brangham discusses the future for Afghan women under Taliban rule with Rina Amiri, who focused on conflict resolution in Afghanistan for the United Nations and the U.S.; now a senior fellow at New York University's Center for Global Affairs.  And Nura Sediqe, a public policy fellow at the Princeton School of Public and International Affairs, and member of the Afghan-American coalition.

 

 

"Thousands of Afghans can’t access the airport.  Those who can recall Taliban threats, abuse" PBS NewsHour 8/19/2021

Excerpt

SUMMARY:  As more American and allied flights leave the capital of Afghanistan Thursday, an ever-growing panic descends on the city.  More American troops and marines arrived, but despite U.S. efforts, Taliban fighters are hindering movement toward the Kabul airport, leaving thousands of civilians trapped.  With support from the Pulitzer Center, Jane Ferguson reports on the situation in Kabul.

 

 

"Evacuating Afghans who helped U.S. a ‘high priority,’ national security official says" PBS NewsHour 8/19/2021

Excerpt

SUMMARY:  For a senior perspective from the Biden administration on the Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan and U.S. response and support of evacuation efforts, Judy Woodruff is joined by Jon Finer, the Deputy National Security Advisor.

 

 

"What went wrong in the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan?  Two lawmakers weigh in" PBS NewsHour 8/19/2021

Excerpt

SUMMARY:  As more American and allied flights are leaving the capital of Afghanistan Thursday, an ever-growing panic descends on the city.  More American troops and marines arrived, but despite U.S. efforts,Taliban fighters are hindering movement toward the Kabul airport, leaving thousands of civilians trapped.  With support from the Pulitzer Center, Jane Ferguson reports on the situation in Kabul.

 

 

"Frustrated by ill-prepared evacuation plan, anxious Afghans rush airport gates" PBS NewsHour 8/20/2021

Excerpt

SUMMARY:  The U.S. says it has assurances from the Taliban that evacuations of Afghans who want to leave the country can continue after the withdrawal deadline of August 31st.  But the Taliban continues to harass and impede passage throughout Kabul.  Even with more evacuation flights out, throngs of people desperate to flee keep trying.  Jane Ferguson reports from Kabul, with support from the Pulitzer Center.

 

 

"The U.S. ignored corruption within the Afghan government.  Did that lead to its fall?" PBS NewsHour 8/20/2021

Excerpt

SUMMARY:  As the Taliban faces protests and dissent across Afghanistan, William Brangham explores the collapse of the country's government — built and supported by the U.S. and allies for 20 years.  For a deeper perspective, Brangham speaks with Sarah Chayes, who covered the fall of the Taliban after 9/11 for NPR and served as advisor to several senior U.S. military commanders in Afghanistan.

 

 

"Afghans desperately try to flee; U.S. evacuation continues" PBS NewsHour 8/21/2021

Excerpt

SUMMARY:  Chaos at Kabul airport continued as thousands of Afghans desperately tried to flee the country.  At the same time, at least 17,000 people have been evacuated from the country, 2,500 of them American nationals.  The Taliban came a step closer to taking over officially as the group’s co-founder and political leader Mullah Baradar arrived in Kabul to begin talks about forming a new government.  NewsHour Correspondent Jane Ferguson reports with support from The Pulitzer Center.

 

 

It is a sad day for America and a tragic day for Afghans.  Ala be with them.

THE ABANDONMENT OF AFGHANISTAN - Taliban Expansion

"Taliban gains Afghan territory, may seek ‘complete return to power’ amid US withdrawal" PBS NewsHour 6/21/2021

Excerpt

SUMMARY:  The U.S. military will soon complete its withdrawal from Afghanistan after 20 years of war.  But the Afghan government is under constant attack from the Taliban and is struggling to hold onto its territory.  This past weekend saw some of the militants' largest gains yet.  Nick Schifrin and Scott Worden, director of Afghanistan and Central Asia at the U.S. Institute of Peace think tank, explain.

BIDEN ADMINISTRATION - This Week's Roundup

"Biden’s bipartisanship: What we learned from the President’s meeting with lawmakers" PBS NewsHour 4/12/2021

Excerpt

SUMMARY:  Congress returns from recess this week, and as we reported earlier, the first stop for a bipartisan group of lawmakers was the White House — invited by the President as he works to sell his American Jobs Plan on infrastructure and climate.  Congressional correspondent Lisa Desjardins joins us for an update.

 

 

"Biden to remove remaining U.S. troops from Afghanistan by September" PBS NewsHour 4/13/2021

Excerpt

SUMMARY:  President Biden plans to announce Wednesday that all 2,500 U.S. troops in Afghanistan will leave the country by Sept. 11.  The troop withdrawal would be four months later than the previous deadline, and top Republicans immediately criticized the move.  Amna Nawaz joins Judy Woodruff to discuss.

 

 

"Biden says U.S. will still ‘hold Taliban accountable’ after troops leave Afghanistan" PBS NewsHour 4/14/2021

Excerpt

SUMMARY:  President Joe Biden formally announced Wednesday that the United States would withdraw all troops from Afghanistan by September 11, 20 years since the fateful day that led to the U.S. invasion.  More than 2,300 American soldiers have lost their lives in what's become the country's longest war.  John Yang begins our coverage.

 

 

"How the U.S. plans to address educational inequities, teacher burnout and school shootings" PBS NewsHour 4/14/2021

Excerpt

SUMMARY:  More than half of public schools around the country are back to full time in-person classes.  But many school districts still are using distance or hybrid learning, and there are many questions ahead about what it will take to reopen more fully in the coming months.  Amna Nawaz looks at those questions and more with Secretary of Education, Miguel Cardona.

 

 

"Biden flip-flops on refugee policy after blowback for keeping Trump-era restrictions" PBS NewsHour 4/16/2021

Excerpt

SUMMARY:  Friday saw the Biden Administration giving mixed messages on refugee admission.  After receiving blowback for keeping the historically low refugee cap set by President Trump, the White House quickly reversed its position, and said it will move to lift them.  Yamiche Alcindor has more on the flip-flop, and discusses it with Jenny Yang, the vice president of advocacy and policy at World Relief.

AFGHANISTAN - Peace Talks vs Attacks

"Amid peace talks, Taliban claims deadly explosion in Kabul" PBS NewsHour 9/2/2019

Excerpt

SUMMARY:  In Afghanistan, the Taliban claimed responsibility for a massive explosion that rocked Kabul, killing at least five and wounding 50.  It targeted the heavily secured area that’s home to several aid agencies and international organizations, and came as the U.S. envoy briefed the Afghan government on a draft peace deal.  Special correspondent Jane Ferguson joins Judy Woodruff with the latest.

"In Afghanistan, the Taliban uses violence as leverage during peace negotiations" PBS NewsHour 9/3/2019

Excerpt

SUMMARY:  In the Afghan capital of Kabul, 16 people died in a car bomb Monday night.  A compound housing mostly international workers was the target, and the Taliban claimed responsibility even as they participate in peace talks with the U.S.  Why has there been a “massive uptick in violence” recently, and what might the tentative peace deal include?  Special correspondent Jane Ferguson joins Judy Woodruff.

"What’s next for U.S.-Afghanistan peace talks?" PBS NewsHour 9/8/2019

Excerpt

SUMMARY:  President Trump announced on Twitter on Saturday that he had canceled a secret Camp David meeting with the Taliban and Afghan officials, after the insurgent group “admitted” to a suicide attack in Kabul that killed 12 people, including a U.S. soldier.  The Wall Street Journal’s Kabul bureau chief, Craig Nelson, joins Hari Sreenivasan to discuss the road ahead in ending America’s longest war.