WAR ON TERROR - Yemeni Group New Plot

"Foiled Plot Highlights U.S. Concern on Yemeni Group" by SIOBHAN GORMAN, LAURA MECKLER and EVAN PEREZ, Wall Street Journal 5/8/2012

A recently thwarted airline bomb plot shows that al Qaeda's offshoot in Yemen is "the most operationally active" branch of the worldwide terrorist organization, the White House said Tuesday, calling the group a "cancer" that has to be excised from the Arabian Peninsula.

Investigators were closely scrutinizing the construction of a garment bomb seized in the plot discovered last month by U.S. officials and their foreign allies. They are looking for clues that would lead to its makers, as well as help aviation security experts improve and adjust airport detection systems.

"We're trying to understand different aspects of the design to make sure that we're able to take preventive action in the future to prevent this or other types of devices" from reaching their intended targets, probably U.S.-bound jetliners, said John Brennan, the White House counter-terrorism adviser, in televised interviews.

The bomb that was intended for use in the disrupted plot was a more advanced version of an underwear bomb deployed in a failed 2009 Christmas Day bombing attempt, officials said Monday.

Mr. Brennan and other officials continued to refuse to discuss details of the operation that disrupted the plot, except to say that the bomb was seized overseas. He stressed that the bomb never posed a serious, direct threat.

"We had confidence that we had control," he said, adding there was no connection to the first anniversary last week of the death of terrorist leader Osama bin Laden.

Still unclear is the fate of the suspected bomber or bombers. Mr. Brennan and other officials refused to say whether those involved are in the custody of the U.S. or another country, or whether they are still alive. "We don't have to worry about the I.E.D. or the would-be bomber," Mr. Brennan said in one interview, using the abbreviation for improvised explosive device.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, speaking at a news conference Tuesday while traveling in India, repeated the admonition that the plot shows why Americans and others must remain vigilant, despite official assessments that al Qaeda has weakened considerably in recent years.

"They keep trying to devise more and more perverse and terrible ways to kill innocent people," Mrs. Clinton said. She added that U.S. officials are deepening counter-terrorism partnerships with other countries, and called on Pakistan to do more "to make sure that its territory is not used as launching pads for terrorist attacks anywhere, including inside of Pakistan."

As federal officials learned more about the latest garment bomb, they considered its implications for airport security. Some congressional officials on Monday said the device would have been "undetectable" at a U.S. airport, but that view was questioned Tuesday.

"Many believe the system that's in place would have detected this," said Rep. Mike Rogers (R., Mich.), chairman of the House intelligence committee, adding that finding was "a preliminary conclusion."

U.S. officials had known about the plot for about a month, and President Barack Obama was briefed on the plot in April.

The bomb in U.S. possession is expected to provide clues to recent advances made by AQAP. "We're hoping it's going to yield some valuable insights," the U.S. counter-terrorism official said.

A senior U.S. counter-terrorism official said that if the device had been smuggled onto a plane, it probably would have gone off. But it did have some flaws that may have impacted its ability to detonate properly, the official said.

The device is similar to those used both in the Christmas Day attempt aboard an international flight to Detroit and an earlier failed plot to assassinate a Saudi prince. A U.S. counter-terrorism official said there are enough "qualitative differences" to suggest that the group is getting more sophisticated and trying to learn from its mistakes.

The bomb is believed to have been designed by the group's top bomb maker, Ibrahim Hassan Tali al-Asiri, who officials believe designed the Christmas Day bomb as well. He remains at large and is a target of the CIA's drone program in Yemen.

"It has all the hallmarks of an Asiri special," the U.S. counter-terrorism official said. Mr. Asiri is also causing worry among U.S. counter-terrorism officials because he appears to be training others in his techniques.

"He is trying to make sure there are other people around who have this particular knowledge," the U.S. counter-terrorism official said. "He probably realizes he's not going to be around forever."

As a potentially important side benefit, there were signs that intelligence gathered during the investigation led to what Yemeni officials have described as an apparent U.S. drone strike Sunday that killed a top al Qaeda operative, Fahd al-Quso. A senior administration official suggested a connection between the two cases.

Mr. Quso was implicated in the 2000 al Qaeda bombing of the U.S.S. Cole in Yemen and was wanted by the FBI with a $5 million reward for information leading to his capture. U.S. officials have said it would take some time to confirm the death.

The new airline plot represented the latest threat to emanate from the Yemeni group known as al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, or AQAP, and underscores the emergence of Yemen as an area of concern to U.S. officials. The U.S. has recently stepped up counter-terrorism efforts there, including the expanded use of unmanned drones.

U.S. officials have grown increasingly concerned about the threat posed by Yemeni group in the past six months, despite the killing of American-born AQAP cleric Anwar al-Awlaki. The group has taken advantage of the civil instability in Yemen by accumulating territory that could become a new al Qaeda safe haven, U.S. officials warn.

"The device and the plot are consistent with what we know about AQAP's plans, intentions and capabilities," the U.S. counter-terrorism official said. "They remain committed to striking targets in Yemen, Saudi Arabia, [the U.S.] and Europe. And AQAP is probably feeling pressure to conduct a successful attack to, from their perspective, avenge the deaths of bin Laden and al-Awlaki."

The White House recently approved an expansion of U.S. drone programs in Yemen, which permit the CIA and military to pursue certain types of targets even when their identities aren't known.

"It indicates AQAP is an extremely dangerous organization," a U.S. counter-terrorism official said. "They're resourceful; they're determined; and they're adaptive."

Violence in Yemen has surged in recent months as the local al Qaeda offshoot grabbed control of all or parts of three southern provinces, creating the possibility of a militant haven there. U.S. officials have concluded that AQAP is as focused on attacking the West as it is on destabilizing the Yemen government.

However, the government of Yemeni President Abdu Rabu Manour Hadi, who took over after civil unrest toppled former leader Ali Abdullah Saleh, has retaliated against the extremists and agreed to an expansion of U.S. attacks using unmanned aircraft.