Excerpt
SUMMARY: Syndicated columnist Mark Shields and New York Times columnist David Brooks join Judy Woodruff to discuss the week’s news, including the GOP tax bill signed into law, the things lawmakers didn’t accomplish before the end of the year and what it will mean for the 2018 midterm elections, plus David and Mark share whom they would give holiday gifts to this year.
Judy Woodruff (NewsHour): And to the analysis of Shields and Brooks. That is syndicated columnist Mark Shields and New York Times columnist David Brooks.
Gentlemen, welcome.
Three days before Christmas, Congress has just gone home. David, the President says this tax bill that they passed is a great gift for the American people. He said today corporations are going wild over this. They’re showering their employees with bonuses.
But the polls show people are still skeptical. What are people to make of this?
David Brooks, New York Times: Yes.
Well, I have not been a big fan of this tax bill for a whole number of reasons, one of which I think was revealed today. When you look at all the intricacies of it, not all the big things, little changes that could have vast effects on American societies.
For example, we have got the health insurance system, the employer-based health system because of some minor change during World War II. This has all sorts of minor things. Because we had no hearings, because we had no expert review, and no time to actually look at what’s in the bill, it has dozens of that kind of minor changes that could have massive effects.
For example, we could all — it doesn’t make sense to work for a company anymore, when you can declare yourself a corporation and pay the corporate rate. And so that could just have massive effects of the economy.
So it’s actually kind of hard to know what the effects of this tax bill will be, because I think most of them are unintended.
Judy Woodruff: So, are people scratching their heads, Mark, or are they worried? What do you see?
Mark Shields, syndicated columnist: People have concluded, at least strong initial judgment, Judy, that it is a bill that favors corporations and favors the very well-off.
And that is a conclusion. As Peter Hart, the pollster says, when a negative judgment is formed, it’s very difficult to overcome that. And that is the perception.
Most people don’t have the option of declaring themselves corporations. That comes to a level of affluence and influence not available to most American families.
And I think what David cited is a good example.
David Brooks: Yes. I would say one thing. I don’t think it is going to be a political loser for the Republicans.
Judy Woodruff: You don’t?
David Brooks: Because 80 percent of the country does — or tax units, does get a break out of it of varying sizes.
Some people will get pretty significant breaks. If you have a kid or a couple of kids, the child deductible tax credit, it doubles and it becomes refundable, so you actually get a check in the mail. And a lot of people are going to be seeing that. And a lot of people are going to be surprised to see that.
So I don’t think it will be the total loser that it looks now. I think now the polling, people don’t know what’s in the tax bill. They just don’t like Trump. He’s associated with it. They get the Republicans favor the rich.
But this bill is — you spend a trillion-and-a-half dollars, you can give a lot of money away.
Judy Woodruff: So, Mark, you…
(CROSSTALK)
Judy Woodruff: Go ahead.
Mark Shields: In 1986, which was an employer tax reform bill, Ronald Reagan, passed the Senate 74-23, passed the House 296-132, bipartisan, overwhelmingly, and popular.
And President Reagan refused to sign anything that wasn’t deficit-neutral, and, Judy, historic. And that year, 1986, the Republicans lost control of the Senate, lost nine Senate seats. Democrats increased their majority in the House.
It is a — in 1981, after President Reagan signed his then historic first tax cut, the same thing. The Republicans suffered.
David’s point is that they get a couple more bucks. I get 20 bucks more or 30 bucks more in my check. But I’m going to be regaled and inundated with stories of millionaires walking away, of special interests, of Wall Street getting it. And it becomes very relative. I’m starting to feel duped, because all of these wealthy people are getting windfalls.
David Brooks: Yes.
I think the Republicans are going to do very bad in the midterm, but not because of the tax bill.
Mark Shields: OK.
David Brooks: And there are lot — in ’86, it was revenue-neutral. In ’81, there was a recession. Now times are economically good.
Mark Shields: That’s right.
David Brooks: So you can vote on a lot of things. In general, when you run up big deficits and give away — back money to people, they like it. And people like me say, hey, you should worry about the deficits or you should worry about the distribution effects.
That’s just never been, I think, my experience of how people respond to it. They say, hey, I got some money back.
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