Monday, January 11, 2016

MIDEAST - Iran vs Saudi Arabia

"How does the Iran-Saudi Arabia conflict affect Mideast diplomacy?" PBS NewsHour 1/4/2016

Excerpt

SUMMARY:  Why did Saudi Arabia execute a prominent Shiite cleric if it knew that it would inflame tensions with Iran?  Judy Woodruff gets analysis of what that rivalry means for the region from Vali Nasr of John Hopkins University and Randa Slim of the Middle East Institute.

JUDY WOODRUFF (NewsHour):  Now we return to the tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

I’m joined by Vali Nasr, dean of the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, and Randa Slim of the Middle East Institute.  And we welcome you both.

Randa Slim, to you first, why did the Saudis execute this cleric whom they had imprisoned already for several years?

RANDA SLIM, Middle East Institute:  This is a crisis that needs to be looked at through the context of an ongoing rivalry for power between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

And this execution is a message from the Saudis to Iran, but also it’s a message to its own domestic constituency.  But I think the crisis that has been caused by this execution is primarily driven by domestic factors.

We have two regimes in this case in Saudi Arabia and Iran that are acting out of fear and out of feelings of insecurity about the long-term stability of the regime.  And they are using this crisis as a way to consolidate power and support internally and to send messages also regionally.

JUDY WOODRUFF:  So, Vali Nasr, the Saudis had to know that this would inflame and anger Iran.

VALI NASR, School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University:  Yes, they did.

And this came after another crisis which followed the death of several hundred Iranian pilgrims during a tragedy in Mecca last year.  The relations got very tense.  Both sides accused one another of bad intentions.  And Iran had also warned about the killing of this cleric, and so had the United States.

And the killing of a cleric, particularly Shia Islam, is not a trivial matter.  And the Saudis knew that this — killing a Shia cleric is not like killing any other Shia activist.  And I think Randa is absolutely correct that there was a domestic factor.  This execution case came a few days after the Saudis announced their first austerity package internally as a consequence of reduction of oil prices.

It also came regionally right after the United States first included Iran in the Vienna process.  And then the Shia government in Iraq, with American and Iranian support, recaptured Ramadi.  It looked like the Iranians were actually on much of an upswing in the region than the Saudis were.  So, it’s also a signal.  In addition to the domestic policy, it’s a signal to the United States as well.



"A view from Iran on heightened conflict with Saudi Arabia" PBS NewsHour 1/5/2016

Excerpt

SUMMARY:  As the diplomatic fallout continues over Saudi Arabia’s execution of a prominent Shiite cleric and the ensuing destructive protests, how does Iran see the crisis?  William Brangham talks to Thomas Erdbrink of The New York Times.

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