RUSSIA - Syria, Putin Interference

"What does Moscow get from offering Assad military support?" PBS NewsHour 9/10/2015

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SUMMARY:  What do we know about Russia’s military involvement in Syria?  Gwen Ifill speaks to Pavel Baev of the Peace Research Institute Oslo and Steven Simon of Dartmouth College.

GWEN IFILL (NewsHour):  So, what are the Russians up to in Syria, and what’s the impact on the ground?

For some answers, we turn to Pavel Baev, a Russian military scholar and the research director at the Peace Research Institute in Oslo, and Steven Simon, a visiting lecturer at Dartmouth College.  He served on the National Security Council staff during the Obama and Clinton administrations.

Pavel Baev, what do we know of the extent of the Russian involvement right now in Syria?

PAVEL BAEV, Peace Research Institute Oslo:  Very little is actually known for fact, and what is known doesn’t make much sense, because what the Russians are saying is, yes, we are supplying — were supplying small arms, ammunition and personnel carriers and some military advisers and some technical personnel.

This sort of military weapons do not need any technical advisers and personnel.  They’re pretty elementary.  So the feeling is that the little increase in Russian military deliveries produced a lot of political spin and that was deliberate.

GWEN IFILL:  Steven Simon, do we think we’re talking about advisory help or combat help?

STEVEN SIMON, Dartmouth College:  Well, we know that the Russians are worried about this — the viability of the Syrian regime right now.

The Syrians have — that is, the regime has absorbed pretty serious losses over the past year.  They had a good year in 2014 — 2015, not very good.  They lost Idlib.  They lost Palmyra.  They’re under pressure in the south and now they’re under pressure in the east at Deir el-Zour.

They have got a demographic problem.  It’s not clear how long they can actually keep up the fight.  For the Russians, the viability of this regime is extremely important for a number of reasons, and I seriously doubt they’re going to let it go down.

I infer from that the kind of assistance they’re preparing to provide to the Syrians will be military assistance, assistance that will help keep the Syrian regime afloat and on the battlefield at a very precarious moment.

So more people will be sacrificed on the alter of despot Bashar al-Assad.

UKRAINE - U.S. Supplying Arms to Kiev?

"U.S. Considers Supplying Arms to Ukraine Forces, Officials Say" by MICHAEL R. GORDON and ERIC SCHMITT, New York Times 2/1/2015

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With Russian-backed separatists pressing their attacks in Ukraine, NATO’s military commander, Gen. Philip M. Breedlove, now supports providing defensive weapons and equipment to Kiev’s beleaguered forces, and an array of administration and military officials appear to be edging toward that position, American officials said Sunday.

President Obama has made no decisions on providing such lethal assistance.  But after a series of striking reversals that Ukraine’s forces have suffered in recent weeks, the Obama administration is taking a fresh look at the question of military aid.

Secretary of State John Kerry, who plans to visit Kiev on Thursday, is open to new discussions about providing lethal assistance, as is Gen. Martin E. Dempsey, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, officials said. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel, who is leaving his post soon, backs sending defensive weapons to the Ukrainian forces.

In recent months, Susan E. Rice, Mr. Obama’s national security adviser, has resisted proposals to provide lethal assistance, several officials said.  But one official who is familiar with her views insisted that Ms. Rice was now prepared to reconsider the issue.

Fearing that the provision of defensive weapons might tempt President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia to raise the stakes, the White House has limited American aid to “non-lethal” items, including body armor, night-vision goggles, first aid kits and engineering equipment.

But the failure of economic sanctions to dissuade Russia from sending heavy weapons and military personnel to eastern Ukraine is pushing the issue of defensive weapons back into discussion.

“Although our focus remains on pursuing a solution through diplomatic means, we are always evaluating other options that will help create space for a negotiated solution to the crisis,” said Bernadette Meehan, a spokeswoman for the National Security Council.

Fueling the broader debate over policy is an independent report to be issued Monday by eight former senior American officials, who urge the United States to send $3 billion in defensive arms and equipment to Ukraine, including anti-armor missiles, reconnaissance drones, armored Humvees and radars that can determine the location of enemy rocket and artillery fire.

Michèle A. Flournoy, a former senior Pentagon official who is a leading candidate to serve as defense secretary if Hillary Rodham Clinton is elected president, joined in preparing the report.  Others include James G. Stavridis, a retired admiral who served as the top NATO military commander, and Ivo Daalder, the ambassador to NATO during Mr. Obama’s first term.

“The West needs to bolster deterrence in Ukraine by raising the risks and costs to Russia of any renewed major offensive,” the report says.  “That requires providing direct military assistance — in far larger amounts than provided to date and including lethal defensive arms.”

U.S. - Change of Attitude on Syria?

Note, all that's happening today could possibly have been avoided if the U.S. and the West had taken firmer action (military strikes at the least) in Syria at the beginning of the civil war.  Then, hindsight is always 20-20.

"Shift in U.S. attitude over involvement in Syria after Foley execution" PBS NewsHour 8/24/2014

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HARI SREENIVASAN (NewsHour):  Joining us now from Washington D.C. is Dion Nissenbaum of The Wall Street Journal.

It seems the pace of change here and the U.S. attitude in involvement in Syria or in airstrikes has changed dramatically just in the last 24-36 hours.

DION NISSENBAUM:  Yes there’s no question that the beheading of James Foley changed the calculus for the administration here and the rhetoric ramped up almost immediately.

You heard Secretary of State John Kerry saying that their wickedness, it has to be destroyed.  The pentagon is really escalating its efforts to identify targets inside Syria.

They’re looking at expanding the air campaign in Iraq.  I think militarily they could expand this fairly quickly.

I think what we need to see in the coming week is whether there’s the political will to move in this direction, and you’ll probably remember it was a year ago that we were having a similar conversation after president Assad was accused of the chemical weapons attack in Damascus that killed hundreds of people, and President Obama was seeking support for military strikes in Syria at that point as well.

IRAQ - Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki Requests More U.S. Military Aid

"Lawmakers doubt if more U.S. military aid is solution to Iraq's terror threats" PBS Newshour 10/31/2013

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SUMMARY:  During his visit to Washington, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki asked for more U.S. military aid to fight a resurgent al-Qaida threat in his nation.  But U.S. lawmakers who oppose aid are concerned the unraveling of Iraqi security comes from Maliki's own failure to "govern in an inclusive fashion."  Margaret Warner reports.

MARGARET WARNER (Newshour):  It's become an all-too-familiar scene of renewed carnage in Iraq: a bus station hit by a car bomb, one of 10 weekend attacks that killed dozens, on top of nearly 1,000 dead in September and more than 7,000 this year, according to the United Nations.

RYAN CROCKER, former U.S. Ambassador to Iraq:  It is a pretty grim time in Iraq, with over 1,000 deaths a month, most of them caused by al-Qaida bombings.