ISIS - Recruitment Up, Not in the U.S.

"The number of foreign recruits to the Islamic State is booming, but not in the U.S." PBS NewsHour 12/8/2015

Excerpt

SUMMARY:  As U.S. officials worry about attacks inspired by the Islamic State group, a new report says the number of foreign fighters traveling to Iraq and Syria has increased dramatically in the past year.  Judy Woodruff learns more from Richard Barrett of the Soufan Group and Rukmini Callimachi of The New York Times.

JUDY WOODRUFF (NewsHour):  As law enforcement and intelligence officials worry about attacks inside the United States inspired by the Islamic State group, a new report released today says the number of foreign fighters traveling to Iraq and Syria has dramatically increased over the past year.

This chart shows most of the new fighters are from the Middle East and North Africa, the former Soviet Republics and Western Europe.  The average rate of fighters then returning to Western Europe is estimated to be 20 to 30 percent.

We turn now to the lead author of the report, Richard Barrett.  He’s senior vice president of the Ali Soufan Group.  It’s a security consulting company.  He’s also a former British diplomat and intelligence officer.  And New York Times reporter Rukmini Callimachi.  She’s written extensively about the Islamic State group and its followers.

Richard Barrett, Rukmini Callimachi, welcome to you both.

Let me start with you, Richard Barrett.

So, the number of foreign fighters going into Syria and Iraq increasing dramatically over the last 18 months.  How much has it gone up, who are they, and where are they coming from?

RICHARD BARRETT, The Soufan Group:  Well, we reckon it’s about doubled.

It’s gone from 12,000, as we estimated in June of last year, to somewhere between 27,000 and 31,000 now.  And most of the recruits are, as you said earlier, from the Middle East and North Africa, but a considerable the number from other countries as well, most notably, of course, Europe, and Russia and the former republics of the Soviet Union.

I think one thing that’s interesting perhaps is that, from North America, the number has remained pretty flat.  There’s been really rather an unremarkable increase from North America, which is quite an illustration of your discussion earlier in the program.

But there are many reasons why people go to join the Islamic State, and it doesn’t mean that all of them are domestic terrorists in training.  A lot of them will go to join the Islamic State.  And I think the key question is about the returnees, whether they have some intention to do something like the Paris attacks or whether, in fact, they’re just fed up with the whole thing, completely disillusioned by the Islamic State and want to go home.

JUDY WOODRUFF:  And I do want to ask you about the returnees, but back to the origin of their decision to make this move, what is driving most of them?

RICHARD BARRETT:  Well, it’s hard to say, of course, and we need to know more.

But I think that the Islamic State does offer some very real attractions.  I think it offers, obviously, some sort of adventure.  And it’s a new venture as well.  You can be in on something which looks really important from the very beginning.  And you can be in on something which gives you a sense of purpose, a sense of belonging, a sense of direction which may be completely lacking in your life at home.

And I think, also, it sort of forgives the past, so you can shed all your past and you can start afresh as a valued and respected member of society.  And I think for many people who go to join the Islamic State, that, they found lacking.  That, they found difficult.