PBS Newshour 6/3/2011
Excerpt from video transcript
JUDY WOODRUFF (Newshour): Well, I want to ask you about that in a moment.
But we keep hearing that companies have a lot of cash on hand. So, how do you square that with the decision not to put more people on the payroll?
JOEL NAROFF, Naroff Economic Advisers: Well, there's really a disconnect between companies earning money and the companies' stock prices and how they spend it and where they spend it.
We're in a globalized economy right now. A lot of the especially large companies that have a lot of business overseas are looking towards their overseas markets, rather than the domestic U.S. markets to expand. As a result of that, they may be making a lot of money, but they may be putting that money to use somewhere else outside the United States.
So, we used to say, if the stock market goes up or if companies are earning lots of money, that's going to be a sign that the U.S. economy is strong and more jobs are coming. That's not necessarily the case anymore.
Ah, yes. "Those people" the Republicans say are creating jobs and should NOT have their taxes raised. The rich DO NOT spend their income only in America, they spend more investing outside of America where they see more profits to be made.
ALSO
"Shields, Brooks on 'Discouraging' Jobs Report, Debt Debate, Romney vs. Palin" PBS Newshour Transcript 6/3/2011
Excerpt on jobs
JIM LEHRER (Editor, Newshour): And to the analysis of Shields and Brooks, syndicated columnist Mark Shields, New York Times columnist David Brooks.
Mark, how do you read the politics of these bad job numbers today?
MARK SHIELDS: They're not disappointing, Jim; they're discouraging.
These are -- everybody knew, economists agreed this was not a strong recovery, but they thought it was a recovery. And now there's a serious question about that. Any time there's open speculation about whether -- the possibility, even, of a double-dip recession, that's a blow to consumer confidence, which is key to our economic well-being.
Most devastating figure to me is this, that 45 percent of the unemployed Americans -- there's 13.2 Americans -- million Americans who are unemployed -- 45 percent of them have been unemployed for at least 27 weeks.
JIM LEHRER: Yes.
MARK SHIELDS: That's -- that's the highest total ever recorded. The highest previously was 1983, when one-quarter of those had been out that long. These are people for whom you wonder, are jobs ever coming back?
JIM LEHRER: Yes.
What do you think, David?
DAVID BROOKS: Well, and it's also going to affect the psychology.
I saw a chart recently where they asked people over decades, how big do you think your raise will be next year? In the 80s, it was like six percent. In the 90s, it was three percent. Now it's down to like one percent. So, people even with jobs just aren't expecting that much.
And so I think it widens the scope of the possible, if we do have, maybe not a double-dip, but just a long, slow period of very slow job growth -- people are very discouraged. People are upset about institutions. And that means they could go any which way.
And so I don't know how they will react to -- if there is this period of long, slow growth, but there will be discouragement, depression, and, as a result, a possible reaction that none of us can predict.
JIM LEHRER: What about -- the Republican leadership obviously criticized President Obama for his reaction. And they didn't -- didn't directly blame him, but came pretty close.
DAVID BROOKS: Yes.
JIM LEHRER: But that's -- that's to be expected, is it not?
DAVID BROOKS: Well, that's their campaign. Romney had this slogan which will be the slogan we will probably hear for the next year-and-a-half, which was he inherited a bad economy and he made it worse. And that will be their main charge.
And Obama's counter will have to be, if it stays like this, it would have been worse without me. And that's just an absolutely terrible way to run a campaign: It would have been worse without me.
And so Republicans are going to hit this. I think, in the Republican race, if there is a slow recession, it helps Mitt Romney. This is sort of in his wheelhouse, if the focus is on jobs, it's less than health care, which is his weakness.
And then one other factor I think this will influence us over the next several weeks, I think it will make it much harder to have a deal on a debt ceiling.
JIM LEHRER: Why?
DAVID BROOKS: Because I think, in a weak recession, Democrats and some others are going to be very, very hesitant to cut spending. They will say we need this spending to sort of pump the prime -- or prime the pump. And so that will -- that's another effect, I think.
JIM LEHRER: Do you agree with that, that it's going to be -- the Democrats are going to have problems with this from a psychological standpoint, but they're also going to have a reality problem with this, are they not?
MARK SHIELDS: A reality problem.
Historically, with numbers like this, the Democrats' response would be, boy, this is -- this really proves we need to have some stimulus spending, deficit spending. The debate...
JIM LEHRER: Cash for clunkers again or...
MARK SHIELDS: Well, or just -- I mean, I was just thinking today, why not national competitiveness, national security? We know that our bridges and our roads and our highways and our airports need this work. I mean, it would be a natural sort of fitting into America's competitiveness and all the rest of it.
But there isn't the political will, and there doesn't seem to be the political belief, a conviction on the part of the Democrats. And on the part of the Republicans, their response is, this proves we have to cut spending more, which, you know, is counterintuitive to many of us who believe that the government has a role as a stimulating agent at times like this.
But there's no question that I think it makes the chances of a deal less, and -- but I think they were hurt by the results of the 26th District in New York last week, where Medicare was the issue, and the Democrats felt that it worked to their advantage and to the Republicans' disadvantage. And Republicans felt the same thing.
So, I think the chances of a grand deal were probably hurt by that as well.
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