POLITICS - Post 2010 Vote Opinion

"Boehner will fail, and Democrats will pounce in 2012" by Markos Moulitsas Zúniga, Christian Science Monitor 11/8/2010

Excerpt

Republicans didn't sweep these elections for grand ideological reasons, but because not enough of the Democratic base showed up to vote. Exit polls also show that angry voters who flocked to Republicans will end up disappointed in their actual policies. And in 2012, Democrats will be ready.

The 2010 elections have come and gone, and Democrats found out what happens when they neglect their base and fail to deliver jobs for the American people.

First things first, the exit polls tell us what this election was not. It was not an embrace of the Republican Party. As counterintuitive as it sounds, the voter opinion of the Republican Party (42 percent favorable) was less favorable than that of the Democratic Party (43 percent favorable). Yet 23 percent of those who viewed the GOP unfavorably still voted for them anyway.

Full of contradictions

While 35 percent of voters believed that Wall Street was to blame for the terrible economy, that cohort still voted for Republicans by a 56 to 42 margin. It’s a GOP con of masterful proportions – embrace Wall Street and its money, yet still win the votes of the financial industry’s biggest critics.

Of the 47 percent of voters who want the health care law as is or even expanded, 44 percent of them voted Republican. The GOP, of course, has made repeal of the law a central tenet of its agenda.

And of the 37 percent of voters who felt the next Congress’s highest priority should be more government spending to create jobs, 30 percent voted for Republicans. Boy, will that bunch be disappointed!

Voters had to punish someone

Bottom line, Democrats didn't lose because Republicans are suddenly popular, or people embrace their agenda. Democrats lost because people are angry and desperate and flailing and had to punish someone for the nation's economic woes. Of course, it didn’t help that core Democratic voters didn’t turn out in the necessary numbers.

The 2008 electorate was 74 percent white, 13 percent black, and 9 percent Latino. This week, it was 78, 10, and 8 percent, respectively. That’s a four-point swing in favor of white voters. That doesn’t sound like much, but it’s an extra net 3.6 million white votes. And given whites voted Republican by a 60 to 37 margin, that was 2.2 million votes banked by Republicans in a contest that featured myriad tight races. Flip just 150,000 votes in Pennsylvania and Illinois, and the Democrats hold both those Senate seats.