"GOP retirements in House may affect party's gains in November" by Chris Cillizza, Washington Post
While the recent political chatter in Washington has focused on Democrats retiring from Congress, Republicans are leaving the House in greater numbers, a trend that could blunt the party's momentum heading into the November midterm elections.
Rep. Henry E. Brown Jr. (S.C.) on Monday became the 14th Republican to announce that he will not run for reelection this year. Ten Democrats have said the same, including an attention-grabbing four in the past two months from swing and Republican-leaning districts.
A broad look at those seats suggests more parity, in terms of the two parties' opportunities and vulnerabilities, than conventional wisdom would suggest.
Each side has three seats won by the other party's presidential candidate in 2008. For Democrats, they are Louisiana's 3rd District and Tennessee's 6th and 8th districts; for Republicans, they are Delaware's at-large seat, Illinois's 10th District and Pennsylvania's 6th District.
Both parties face the prospect of tough campaigns in most of those open-seat districts. Nine of the Republican seats are in districts that GOP presidential candidate John McCain either lost or won with less than 60 percent of the vote in 2008. Democrats are defending seven seats that Barack Obama either lost or won with less than 60 percent.
The relative evenness of those numbers belies the perception in Washington that Democrats are rapidly losing altitude -- the switch of Rep. Parker Griffith (Ala.) to the GOP being a touchstone in that argument -- and are headed for major losses in November.
Retirements are only one factor in the midterms. Republicans still have several advantages and are nearly certain to score double-digit gains in November.
The largest factor in their favor is the weight of history. The first midterm elections for a new president are traditionally marked by significant House losses for his party.
This month will be critical in determining what direction the open-seat landscape is headed. Will a series of Democratic lawmakers -- fresh from conversations with their families and nervous about the political environment -- decide to step aside? (Keep an eye on such congressmen as Leonard L. Boswell of Iowa and Vic Snyder of Arkansas for an early indication of which way the wind is blowing.) And would those departures prompt even more lawmakers to consider leaving on their own terms?
If that happens, an election cycle that looked like a traditional midterm round for Democrats, with losses in the 20-seat range, could become one in which control of the House is up for grabs.
Expect Republicans to push hard on wavering Democratic lawmakers over the next month, letting them know what they are in for if they decide to seek reelection. But if the GOP's retirements continue, that pressure could ease.
"Greer Announces Resignation As Florida GOP Chair -- And Slams Right-Wing Critics On His Way Out" by Eric Kleefeld, TPM
On a conference call with reporters just now, Republican Party of Florida Chairman Jim Greer officially announced his resignation, effective on February 20. He took the opportunity to tear into his right-wing critics for wanting a smaller party and accused them of pulling apart the GOP itself in order to take him out.
Greer is an ally of Gov. Charlie Crist, a relative GOP moderate who is being vigorously challenged in this year's Senate primary by the more conservative former state House Speaker Marco Rubio. Supporters of Rubio had been accusing Greer of mismanaging party funds and of being biased in Crist's favor, all of which Greer has strongly denied. In his resignation, Greer said he could no longer put the party through this divisive process -- but he clearly didn't mind taking some parting shots on the way out.
"As you know, there is a great debate in our party on the direction, moderates vs. conservatives, whether we should have a big tent or a small tent," said Greer. "And while I have made it my utmost concern to try and keep those arguments and discontents out of the Republican Party of Florida, over the last six months there has been a very vocal group within our party that has become very active in seeking an effort to oust me as chairman. They have distorted facts, they have talked about misspending of money, when the facts have been shown over and over and over that that's not true. They have talked about my support of Gov. Crist for the U.S. Senate race. They have, as they say, thrown everything up against the wall as they possibly can, to either embarrass me or embarrass the Republican Party of Florida."
"They simply have two goals in mind, and if the first one fails, fall back to the second one," Greer explained. "And the first one is remove me as chairman, and if that doesn't work, burn the house down and destroy the Republican Party of Florida."
Greer further explained: "Their efforts and their own statements privately and even sometimes not so privately, to not be concerned about the future of the party, has led me to recognize that I cannot be a participant in the shredding and tearing of the fabric of the Republican Party. Many of my supporters, including the Governor, have continued right up to this day to support me as chairman. I would note that the Governor has not asked me to step down. In fact the Governor has continued to support me right through this process, and would have continued, because he does know the facts and the accomplishments we have had, through Saturday and beyond."
Greer also said he will remain active in the party. "I intend to be very engaged in supporting candidates," he said. "I intend to play a role in making sure common sense Republicans get elected to office, and Republicans I will support that believe we should be an inclusive party, and be one that lowers the political rhetoric and focuses on leadership and results. I'm not a purist as you all know. I have never been a purist. I believe that our party stands for principles and values that should always allow anyone who has an interest in being part of our party to participate."
A reporter asked Greer whether Marco Rubio is a "small tent" candidate who would hurt the party. Greer didn't give a definitive answer either way. "No, I'm not commenting on any particular campaign," he said. "And at the end of the day, the voters will decide what the Republican Party should look like. My vision as chairman, is what I was talking about, I have strived as chairman to make this party very inclusive and reach out to segments of the voting block that were not provided as much effort as I thought they should have."
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